U.S. crude oil storage capacity utilization
Just a few days before Novak went to the UnitedU.S. crude oil storage capacity utilization States, Novak and Falih co-chaired the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna and reached a decision to increase production at the meeting. Although it was announced at the meeting that there would be a nominal increase of 0 million barrels per day in production capacity, market participants generally believed that the actual increase in production would be lower than this level.
According to the drilling rig report released by the oil service Baker Hughes on September 9 last Friday, US drillers increased the number of rigs in 0 weeks in the past week, the longest time they have not reduced the number of rigs in 20 years.
Abstract: The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday was mainly affected by the possible release of the US strategic reserve crude oil to suppress oil prices, the US’s softening of its attitude towards Iran, the restoration of crude oil supply in Libya, and Saudi Arabia’s use of idle capacity to increase production. U.S. oil fell close to 5%, falling below the $68 mark, a record low since June 22
Zhuo Chuang refined oil analyst Meng Peng predicts that in the next cycle, the United States will suspend Iran sanctions and the supply-side pressure brought about by the recovery of oil production in Libya and other oil production will still put pressure on the oil market, which is worrying the bulls, but the peak of summer travel in North America will increase seasonal demand. , Will support oil prices to a large extent. In the later stage, the long-short game will continue, but the bottom of oil prices will be supported, and oil prices will likely pick up slightly, and US crude oil may hit a high of $70/barrel. Zhuo Chuang predicts that at 24:00 on August 6, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil products is likely to be stranded or slightly increased.
But changes in global trade have changed the outlook for commodities. This is something that has the potential to push the global economy into some kind of recession, seriously hurting crude oil demand, and obviously, it is negative. Societe Generale 6066, New York crude oil analyst Michael
However, in recent years, driven by new technologies, the output of non-OPEC oil-producing countries has also risen sharply, such as the shale gas in the United StatesU.S. crude oil storage capacity utilization and increasing fuel efficiency, which has convinced the Saudi government that the era of rapid oil growth may be over.
Therefore, there will be no oversupply of crude oil in the middle of the next ten years. If Iran is excluded from the global crude oil market, other suppliers will eventually fill this gap. But OPEC members need time to speed up supply even if they decide to do so. The same applies to shale oil producers in the United States. The price of crude oil has risen because traders predict that demand will exceed supply-which now seems to be a reasonable assumption.
In early 205, another well-known hedge fund manager David Einhorn publicly expressed doubts at an investment meeting. He checked the financial statements of six publicly traded oil exploration and production companies and found that from 2006-204 , They spent more than $80 billion on oil sales. According to Dealogic's data, in 207, American hydraulic fracturing companies raised $60 billion in debt, an increase of nearly 0% over 206.
European Union Foreign Affairs Commissioner Mogherini, the three foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, Hunter, Le Drian and Maas jointly condemned the US sanctions on Iran. After the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, the European Union, Russia, and Iran continued to abide by the relevant agreements. The agreement ensures that Iran can only use nuclear energy peacefully. The US sanctions against Iran will take effect on August 7, and European companies that do business with Iran will also be punished.
Judging from the current rising trend of international oil prices, the probability of a slight increase in refined oil prices on February 4 is higher. Therefore, after this round of refined oil price adjustments, domestic refined oil price adjustments in 209 may show a pattern of three consecutive increases.